Vol. 4, No.10, October 2008
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Swing State
Nevada voters may play pivotal role in November election
The lines have been drawn, and the 2008 presidential election season showdown is heating up. At the end of September, polls showed Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain by a small percentage (within the margin of error, in most cases), with eight states still in flux, including Nevada.
Though Nevada has historically been a mostly rural, Republican-leaning state, the tide may be turning. There are now 75,000 more Democrats than there are Republicans in Nevada, and in 2006, the Democrats picked up some key victories in the Silver State (though not in the gubernatorial race). Both candidates need Nevada’s five electoral votes to secure a hard-fought victory, but Nevadans may prove to be more unpredictable than either side anticipates.
Swaying the Southwest
Nevada is part of a greater group of Southwestern states that have evolving electorates due to rapid growth and an influx of Latino immigrants. Neither Democrats or Republicans are quite sure what to make of the new West, but failing to figure it out could cost them the election.
Las Vegas Sun reporter J. Patrick Coolican recently profiled the changing politics of the region in his series “Winning the West.” In his introductory story, Coolican described the transition from old Western ideals of guns and property to urbanization—a shift in mindset and lifestyle that could change how the West can be won.
Coolican said his travels illustrated the differences between the Western states, which, unlike the South, are not united by a shared history and culture.
“Even the states we profiled on our trip will never be solidly Democratic, I don’t think,” Coolican said. “They’ll always have a large population of libertarian and rural residents. They’ll be battlegrounds. Western states are quite diverse, with very different economies, demographics and requirements from government.”
The lower Southwestern states, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico, share the experience of a changing population, due in part to immigration, legal and illegal. The Southwest’s evolving demographics could benefit Obama, particularly in Nevada, where the Latino population has jumped more than 50 percent since 2004.
According to the Pew Hispanic Center’s 2008 National Survey of Latinos, 55 percent of Latinos say Senator Obama is the better candidate for Latinos, whereas only 11 percent say Senator McCain is the better candidate. The study’s findings showed that Latinos could be an important variable in the 2008 presidential election, and their “pessimism about the plight of Latinos as well as their strong opposition to federal enforcement policies could well have consequences in the political arena.”
But the impact of the Latino vote in Nevada is also uncertain. While Latinos represent a full quarter of the population in Nevada, only 13 percent of registered voters identified as Hispanic participated in the 2006 gubernatorial election. In the 2004 election, that number was 10 percent.
In recent elections, issues of national security and border protection have dominated the political discussion, but this year, these topics have all but faded from sight. Coolican said immigration won’t be an issue during the election because both Obama and McCain say they plan to make the borders more secure while also making it easier to become a U.S. citizen.
University of Nevada-Las Vegas political science professor David Damore agreed immigration will not be an issue for most voters, but said it is mainly due to the economic crisis pushing all other issues, ranging from healthcare to gay marriage, to the sidelines.
‘It’s the Economy, Stupid’
Nevada is one of the states that has been hit hardest by the credit crisis, with employment and tourism down and home foreclosure rates skyrocketing. Last month’s failure of several major financial corporations has sparked fears of a deep recession. Political scientists like Damore, who teaches classes on electoral politics, seem to agree the economy will be the sole motivator of many American voters.
“I think it’s going to be about the economy—that’s what voters are going to be thinking about when they look at these candidates,” Damore said. “Certainly right now you have both sides trying to keep up with what’s going on daily. I think Obama’s in better shape in the sense that he doesn’t have a record. McCain’s been pretty much an adamant deregulator. Now he’s trying to shift gears and talk about regulating Wall Street.”
While Obama and McCain have been trading barbs about economic responsibility at every opportunity, neither candidate has developed a coherent response to the financial crisis, though both have articulated the need for some type of bailout.
With working families both in Nevada and nationwide worried now more than ever about their economic security, it seems certain that money woes will send people to the polls. Even issues that have been important to Nevada voters in the past, such as the impact of national security on tourism or the nuclear waste dump at Yucca Mountain, have lost the potential to galvanize voters.
“Republicans are going to vote their party more than they’re going to vote Yucca Mountain,” Damore said. “The Congressional delegation did such a good job of starving that thing to death. The imminency isn’t here.”
Coolican said issues that appeal more to emotion or ideology than reason might play a role in voters’ decision-making, though it seems the economy will take precedence.
“It’s difficult to really determine why voters vote the way they do,” Coolican said. “They may say they’re voting on a specific issue, when in fact they have some emotional pull toward one candidate or the other. But the depressed state of the economy would seem to have voters voting bread-and-butter economic issues more than, say, cultural issues or fear of terrorism.”
Sarah Saves the Day?
Before the economic crisis came to a peak last month, the news headlines were devoted to Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, McCain’s vice-presidential pick. The governor made waves with her first major public appearance at the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis, where she expressed her support for gun rights and domestic drilling. The self-described “hockey mom” was plucked from relative obscurity by the McCain camp to rejuvenate the Republican Party and energize the base. From this standpoint, she has succeeded.
Palin often draws more people to McCain rallies than the headliner does, whether due to her novelty or her likeable personality. Damore said she helps McCain connect with his socially conservative base, especially in places like “the Midwest and those states where he struggles a little bit. She’s been good for mobilizing volunteers.”
Though she may have mobilized Republicans who were unsure about a McCain administration, Coolican said she can’t play a role in every issue confronting the electorate.
“Palin helped McCain erase some of the enthusiasm gap between the two parties, but that’s all,” Coolican said. “The economic crisis has reverted her to the traditional vice presidential role, which tends to be minor.”
Sewing Seeds of Change
With the economy in a freefall and polarizing issues like abortion and the war in Iraq taking a backseat, many wonder what the deciding factor will be. For Nevadans, the last month of campaigning may offer a chance to see what Barack Obama and John McCain plan to do if elected.
Both candidates are running on a reform ticket, with Obama claiming to be a refreshing change from the Bush administration and McCain declaring himself a maverick not beholden to any party. Experts are waiting for the outcome of the upcoming debates, one of which will have already taken place in Oxford, Mississippi at the time this issue is printed. The vice presidential debate between Palin and Obama’s running mate, Senator Joe Biden, will take place October 2. The final two presidential debates will be October 7 and October 15.
“That’s essentially when the undecided voters who actually decide the presidential election start paying attention,” Damore said. “This time around, when there’s so many questions on both sides and the debates aren’t either of the candidates’ strong suit, it’s going to level the playing field.”
In Nevada, where the gaming industry often lends support to certain political candidates over others, not much has been said about the upcoming presidential election, leading Coolican to think other players will be more influential during this election season.
“Gaming tends to wield influence when there’s much at stake,” Coolican said. “They don’t seem to be favoring one party or the other very much in this election. The Culinary Union will play a role, as they use their solid ground organization to wrestle up Democratic votes in Clark County.”
In a close election like this one, any number of elements can determine the final outcome, but one important (and obvious) factor is voters themselves.
The final day to register to vote is October 4 by mail or October 14 in person.
The Clark County Election Office and the Department of Motor Vehicles coordinate voter registration, and many organizations sponsor voter registration drives.
For more information about what to do to prepare for November 4, the day of the election, visit the Nevada Secretary of State’s website at sos.state.nv.us.
