Las Vegas has two words to accompany March Madness: money line.    That’s the sweet investment for serious bettors in college basketball’s multi-million dollar wagering carnival. Underdogs winning games outright produce tremendous payouts—a small dog returns an approximate 2-1 payoff, but an eight-or-a 10-point “wonderdog” usually delivers 3.5-1 or 4-1 odds. It’s one of the premier values in all of sport because post-season upsets are not rare.

Sixty-four schools from across the country need six games to win a national championship. But it’s not a series against a team for which they can make game-by-game adjustments. This is a one event, shoot-em-out, win-or-go home scenario. The better team won’t always win, nor be favored. That makes bettors salivate.

Significant upsets occur for sound fundamental reasons. Teams often meet for the first time with no certainty over which came from the better conference. Pressure also weighs heavily. Teams that routed weaker clubs all year become tight in a must-win game. They face stiff defense for the first time, take low percentage shots at crunch time and find lids on the basket for free throws.

Throw-in buzzer-beaters, costly turnovers and crazy bounces to guarantee some shocking results. This is, after all, a high-profile drama staged nationwide at several venues. These are, after all, amateur athletes. The combination brings some of sports most classic finishes to this tournament.

Bettors embrace the unpredictability. Patrons who like underdogs and place a money line wager atop it often score twice.

The post-season begins March 13 with a play-in game, creating two more days of hoopla. The Big Dance begins March 15 with a 16-game adrenaline rush. Sixteen contests follow March 16, and then eight matchups occur the next two days. Four days of college post-season delivers a whopping 48 games and knocks the field from 64 to 16 teams.

The second weekend is anti-climactic. Odds more closely reflect a team’s ability, thereby reducing values. The schedule contains “only” eight weekend games, a paltry menu for those whose brackets have been annihilated. Winners from that group constitute the Final Four and conclude the season March 31 and April 2 in Atlanta.

Underdogs enjoyed one of their finest post-seasons in 2006. For only the second time in tournament history, and the first in 26 years, NO number one seeds reached the Final Four. UCLA (seeded 2), Florida (3), LSU (4) and George Mason (11) qualified for the final weekend before Florida prevailed.

High ranking may indeed be a jinx. Never have four number one seeds appeared in the Final Four.

Sports books regard the first weekend of March Madness with more reverence than the Super Bowl. Once that game starts, betting stops until halftime. Yet in the NCAA tournament, games unfold in rapid-fire style. Sports book operators get their version of a jam-up craps game, for four straight days, while fans inhale the smorgasbord.

That’s even before one considers UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels created excitement and expectation by hovering around the national rankings during the season.

With March Madness encountering many factors, bettors should not be afraid to buck conventional wisdom. Here is more history to consider in your handicapping:
• Only five teams ranked number one in the nation prior to the post-season won it all. North Carolina prevailed three times, including the latest in 2005. Kentucky achieved the feat in 1979 and Duke in 1999.

• LSU (1986) and George Mason (2006) represent the top Cinderella stories. They sent the highest seed, 11, to the Final Four.

• The Ivy League does not bother with a post-season tournament. Its regular-season winner gets invited to the post-season. Must be an academic exemption.

• A number 16 seed has never beaten a number 1 seed. But that doesn’t mean nobody ever sweated it out. Murray State took Michigan State to overtime before losing in 1990.

• Four number 15’s have knocked off the second seed, another daunting challenge. The last team to do it was Hampton, defeating Iowa State in 2001.

• The most consistent spot to score upsets in is the number 5 position. A 5 seed knocks off a 12 seed 33 percent of the time. That means there’s a strong chance that at least one and maybe two of them will turn the tables in the post-season tournament.

• Otherwise, chalks rule. The 3 seed wins 83 percent of the time, the 4 triumphs four times out of five and the 6 seed holds a 69 percent victory total against the 11 seed. The 7 wins over the 10 seed 60 at a 60 percent clip and the 8-versus-9 slot is a pick-em, as expected. The 9 spot holds a 53-47 percent edge.

So there you have it. Pour a huge coffee, sit back at a book and enjoy what gives Vegas its mystique.

By Dave Bontempo

Casino Connection Sports Editor Dave Bontempo is an award-winning sports writer and broadcaster who calls boxing matches all over the world. He has covered the Philadelphia Flyers in the playoffs, as well as numerous PGA, LPGA and Seniors Golf Tour events, and co-hosted the Casino Connection television program with Publisher Roger Gros.

Please login to post your comments.