Vol. 5, No. 8, August 2009, Sports
Value Propositions
Futures bets offer weekly action for one initial buy-in, but few obvious plays pop out. The division odds are miniscule for the favorites, leaving the over-under season win total as a point of interest.
An early wager on a season-long philosophy is a good play. Buffalo, at over 7.5 wins, is enticing because the Bills won seven without Terrell Owens last year. He usually spikes a new team for one year, helping lift Philadelphia to the Super Bowl and Dallas into a strong showing before wearing out his welcome. Asking Buffalo to win one more game because of its high-profile off-season acquisition seems reasonable.
So does the Arizona Cardinals’ prop bet at over 8.5. The team must only duplicate its nine-win 2008 season in a weak division. The Cardinals also play their final two games at home. Even if Kurt Warner’s off-season surgery slows him, a possible explanation to the 8.5 number, this team is loaded with receiver talent and a taste of a near Super Bowl championship.
Defending champion Pittsburgh is 10.5 and New England 11, so few bargains exist there. But if you have an angle, play it.