Vol. 5, No. 3, March2009, Sports
The Sides of March
Wagering opportunities abound between basketball, baseball, boxing and hockey
Boxing, baseball and hockey round out a strong lineup of money-making opportunities, complementing the action of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
The tournament starts March 19, with 48 games being played over just a four-day stretch. Here are some important factors to take into consideration before stepping to the window:
• Always respect your gut instinct.
• The top-seeded teams generally win in the opening rounds. No top-ranked team has ever lost to a No. 16, although Michigan had to survive an overtime scare from Murray State in 1990. Only four No. 2 teams have ever lost to a No. 15; the No. 3 seeds win 84 percent of the time; and No. 4 seeds win 82 percent of the time. Underdog opportunities don’t present themselves until you get to the No. 5 to No. 12 matchups, in which one in three underdogs prevail. It only gets better when you add the No. 10 seeds (which win 38 percent of the time) and No. 9 seeds, which upset the No. 8 seed 54 percent of the time.
• Run-and-gun teams often lose in the tournament. Championship teams show previous experience in nail-biting games. Good teams shorten the game by protecting the ball, squeezing the clock and getting to the foul line late in close contests. Teams used to blowing opponents out, by contrast, often fire panicky three-point bricks in the final minutes once they fall behind, especially with the season on the line. Remember the pressure facing these athletes, many of whom recently graduated from high school.
• Take a pre-tournament flier. In early February, bodog.com had predictable odds for season-long frontrunners: UConn was 13-2, Oklahoma was 15-2 and North Carolina was an underlay at 5-2. Louisville was 8-1 (fair enough), but Xavier, No. 9 in the nation, was a 70-1 long shot. Granted, the Atlantic 10 hasn’t won a championship, but the avalanche of respectable teams ensures that some club will be overlooked.
• Look to recent trends rather than long-range history. Yes, UCLA has the most titles (11), but they haven’t won anything since 1995. Champions in the new millennium include Duke, Maryland, Syracuse, UConn, North Carolina, Florida (twice) and Kansas. But Florida and Ohio State have also established dubious tournament history. Despite being 2007 finalists, they did not even make the tournament last year.
• Lastly, for the hardcore player, there is also a women’s tournament.
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